By Andrew Collins

After several weeks of blogging about this election, I'm more excited than ever about what lies ahead as election results are reported today. The slightly jittery part of me is hesitant to make predictions. John McCain's campaign appeared to make a few nominal gains late last week, but polling figures had tilted back heavily toward Obama by this morning. Still, I'm nervous. I've had a few friends suggest that it's bad form to make predictions, lest we jinx the outcome. But I've never been the least bit superstitious - what will be, will be. There is only one electoral act within the control of each of us, and that's casting one's voting. I've already mailed in my ballot (I live in Oregon, where elections are conducted by mail). If you haven't already voted, I urge you to.

With that out of the way, the political-nerd part of me has been fascinated all year with potentially weird outcomes, topsy-turvy races, and often stranger-than-fiction campaign moments. I know many voters are tired of all the coverage, and ready for this thing to be done - and for our nation to move forward and solve the many serious problems we face. I eagerly await the results, and I fully recognize the seriousness of this process. But at the same time, for me, the actual day of any election is a highly engrossing spectator event.

So, it being 5:35 a.m. (Pacific time) on election morning, I hereby weigh in with my predictions for today's Presidential, Senate, Gubernatorial, and Congressional races.

A few general thoughts: my hunch is that in a number of states, the polls have (unintentionally) under-represented the Obama vote, and in a variety of ways. There's the cell-phone effect (polls that call cell-phones have consistently shown higher margins in favor of Obama, and most polls have missed cell-phones entirely - besides, think how many people who use cell-phones answer only known callers and would thus ignore a polling call). And I have a suspicion that most polls have under-sampled younger voters, African-American voters, and Hispanic voters . And these are all groups trending toward Obama.

Certain states (North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona) may perform anywhere from 2 to 5 pts better than polls have suggested, based on the aforementioned under-sampling. On the other hand, I'm less confident that Indiana and Missouri will fall in Obama's favor - polls show a close race in both states, and these are places less affected by the factors I've just mentioned. The same is true for Ohio and Florida, but in these states, the polls give Obama a slight edge, and I think he'll maintain these very slight edges (Ohio by 3 or 4 pts, and Florida by 1 or 2 pts). I've never believed Pennsylvania was seriously in play for McCain, and I think Obama will win there by 8 to 10 pts. I think two other nail-biters, North Dakota and Montana, will fall narrowly in Obama’s favor, and a third, South Dakota, will go barely to McCain – can’t really back this up, just a hunch in keeping with my general theory that Obama has resonated with mountain-state voters in a way that no Democrat in the past 50 years.

One reason I'm so bullish on Obama is that the very act of voting this year, in many states, requires a pretty serious investment of time and effort, owing to the long lines and huge turnouts. If you're not a hard-core supporter of either candidate, there's a good chance this year that you simply won't bother showing up. And we've all seen that Obama has a more enthusiastic base than McCain - by significant margins. I also wouldn't be at all surprised if a small but notable percentage of Sarah Palin's most enthusiastic supporters, realizing that McCain has little chance of winning, simply stay home today, hoping that an Obama presidency is a disaster that opens the door for Palin to run against him four years from now.

There just aren't many iffy factors that line up in favor of McCain. Sure, a small percentage of disillusioned Hillary supporters might refuse to vote for Obama, and I don't doubt that a number of voters out there simply pass on Obama because of his race, or because they feel he's too inexperienced. But not voting for Obama isn't the same as voting for McCain. I suspect that a lot of people who, for whatever reason, won't vote for Obama, won't vote at all.

So, a few of the predictions I've made below aren't supported by the polls, including what would be a huge upset should it come to pass - that Obama wins McCain's home state of Arizona. I also think the polls are off on Ronnie Musgrove's race for a Senate seat in Mississippi against Roger Wicker - I think Musgrove will pull it off narrowly, as will Jim Martin in Georgia (although I wouldn't be at all surprised if Martin wins with less than a 50% majority, which in Georgia would result in a subsequent run-off between him and incumbent Saxby Chambliss). And my sense is that some of the GOP victories (Mississippi and South Carolina, for instance, and the Senate races of Lindsey Graham, John Cornyn, James Inhofe, and possibly even Mike Johanns) will be extremely slim - far more so than most polls indicate.

Here are my specific predictions:

Presidential Race:

Total electoral vote: Obama 384, McCain 154

Dem by 10+ pts: CA, CT, DE, HI, IA, IL, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, Dist. of Col.

Dem by 5 to 10 pts: CO, MI, MN, NM, NV, PA, VA, WI,

Dem by 0 to 5 pts: AZ, FL, GA, MT, NC, ND, OH

GOP by 0 to 5 pts: IN, LA, MO, MS, SC, SD

GOP by 5 to 10 pts: AK, AR, KY, NE, TN, TX, WV

GOP by 10+ pts: AL, ID, KS, OK, UT, WY

Dem state won by greatest margin: Hawaii.

GOP state won by greatest margin: Utah.

States with closest election results: Indiana, Arizona, Missouri.

Senate Races:

There are 35 races, and I predict that Dems will pick up 10 seats. Here's the breakdown: Dem incumbents by 10+ pts: Pryor, Biden, Durbin, Harkin, Johnson, Kerry, Levin, Baucus, Lautenberg, Reed, Rockefeller

Dem pick-ups by 10+ pts: M. Udall, T. Udall, M. Warner

Dem incumbents by 5 to 10 pts: Landrieu

Dem pick-ups by 5 to 10 pts: Begich, Hagan, Merkley, Shaheen

Dem pick-ups by 0 to 5 pts: Franken, Musgrove, Martin

GOP incumbents by 0 to 5 pts: Cornyn, Graham, McConnell, Inhofe

GOP incumbents by 5 to 10 pts: Cochran, Collins, Roberts

GOP open-seat saves by 5 to 10 pts: Johanns, Risch

GOP incumbents by 10+ pts: Alexander, Barrasso, Enzi, Sessions

Congressional Races:

I predict that Dems will pick up 39 seats, and the GOP will pick up 3 seats (FL-16, TX-22, and PA-11). With the net Dem gain of 36 seats, the makeup of the House following the election will be 272 to 163 (the 272 includes the vacancy that resulted from the death of Stephanie Tubbs Jones - her seat will be filled, likely by a Democrat, in a special election on November 18).

Among Dem pick-ups, here's my prediction for the 10 most surprising upsets: NJ-5, FL-18, WY-AL, TX-7, SC-1, AZ-3, ID-1, NE-2, VA-2, and MD-1.

Governors Races :

Of the 11 races, the incumbents will win easily in DE, MT, NH, WV, IN, VT, ND, and UT. NC's open seat will remain DEM by 5 to 7 pts, and WA's incumbent governor will be reelected by 2 to 3 pts.

Only pick-up: The Dems will take over MO by a 10- to 12-pt margin.

And finally…

I'm very concerned about the incredibly ugly and unfair Proposition 8 in California. If voters pass this proposition, same-sex couples will lose the right to marry. Outside groups have poured incredible amounts of money into the state in an effort to pass this mandate. I predict a "no" vote will prevail, and Proposition 8 will fail, but by a narrow margin. Whatever the outcome, proponents of overturning gay marriage are on the wrong side of history, and any victories they secure will eventually be overturned. That's one prediction I can make with 100% certainty.

This week's previous posts (most recent first): For Better or Worse, VOTE!, Why John McCain's Election Matters, Accepting Personal Responsibility